The PP would be the first political force in Castilla y León, with between 34 and 37 representatives, and the only one with a real option to govern. Without reaching the desired absolute majority and at a time when the echoes of a possible electoral advance are still heard, the results of the Metroscopy study They would leave a similar result to that registered a few months ago in Madrid with the undeniable triumph of Isabel Diaz Ayuso but without achieving more than half of the seats at stake. As in the neighboring community, the popular would add more seats than the union of the left parties if elections were held at this time and could also govern alone if Vox supports the investiture or obtain in some case the approval of the sum of UPL , Cs and Por Ávila.
Meanwhile, the PSOE would lower its current parliamentary group to 27 or 29 seats (now it has 35), while Podemos would add between two and three. Vox would have a position of strength in the Community by positioning itself as the third political force in the Community and would go from one attorney to between ten and eleven. Instead, the survey leaves Ciudadanos with a single member of parliament. They would complete the UPL autonomic arch, with two, because Por Ávila does not have insurance to repeat the attorney that he obtained more than two years ago.
In worst case scenario for popular interests (get 34 MPs) a government with a socialist sign seems impossible because it should have the votes of Vox, something incompatible with the positions of both formations.
The survey, carried out between October 21 and 25 (1,000 interviews throughout the Community), is part of the Pulse to Spain project developed by Metroscopia throughout the country and reveals a rise of more than five points in voting intention for the popular, which goes from 31.5 percent to 36.8 percent, which would allow it to grow between five and eight attorneys from the 29 it currently has. On the contrary, the Socialists would also fall by about five points (they go from 34.8 percent to 30 percent) and are left between six and eight parliamentarians, reports Ical.
Ciudadanos suffers a collapse in their electoral calculations and would lose two out of every three voters in the Community (it goes from 15 percent to 5.3 percent). A contrary phenomenon is the one experienced by Vox, which goes from 5.5 percent to 14.3 percent of the ballots.
We can, also in decline, drops more than one point to five percent, but the survey gives it the two attorneys it currently has and the possibility of reaching a third, while UPL with a global growth of seven tenths to reach 2 , 7 percent, would win two seats, one more than four years ago. For Ávila, he slightly lowered his voting intention (0.6 percent).
Roll over by provinces
The change in the intention to vote in the Community is evidenced in the distribution of seats by provinces, where the socialists would only be ahead of the popular in Soria, when in the 2019 elections the PP was only above the PSOE in Ávila and tied in Palencia, Salamanca and Zamora. According to the Metroscopia survey, the formation chaired by Alfonso Fernández Mañueco would raise two seats in Salamanca; one in Burgos, León and Segovia and could also do it in Ávila and Valladolid. With this result, the popular would win in Ávila, León, Salamanca and Segovia; He would also have in his hand to win in Palencia and Valladolid and would tie to seats in Burgos and Zamora. On the contrary, the Socialists would only win in Soria.
Vox in Valladolid
The emergence of Vox will move to the provinces, especially Valladolid where the survey grants up to three attorneys, tripling its current representation, and Burgos, with two attorneys (now it has none). In the rest of the provinces the survey grants them a seat, with the exception of Soria, where it would dispute it with the PSOE.
Ciudadanos would lose all representation except for one of the three parliamentarians who got for Valladolid and Podemos would keep those from Burgos and León and could win one in the Valladolid province.
In a context of debate on climate change and in the midst of the energy crisis, the demographic study reveals almost unanimity in the need to promote solar and wind energy: 86 percent of those surveyed say that the Board should promote it more. Regarding the way out of the crisis, the survey reveals the preference of Castilians and Leonese for the digitization of rural areas, industrialization, the promotion of agriculture and livestock and the promotion of renewable energies as a way to boost recovery economical.