A “technical tie” between the block on the right and the one on the left opens the door for a turnaround in the Generalitat. The PP and Vox would add between 49 and 51 seats compared to the 48-51 that PSPV, Compromís and Unidad Podemos would reach if regional elections were held right now in the Valencian Community. In fact, the difference in voting intention between the two groups would barely reach 0.1% in favor of the right (48.3% and 48.2%).
These are the results of a socio-political barometer carried out by the demographic consultancy Electocracia during the third week of October with 1,002 online interviews and presented this Friday at a press conference.
The popular would win the elections with between 31-32 seats in the Valencian Cortes, compared to the 19 they won in 2019. The PP, and to a certain extent Vox, would benefit from the fall of Citizens, which would not exceed the 5% barrier and it would be left without parliamentary representation. The party led by Carlos Mazón would get almost a third of the votes obtained by the orange formation in the last elections. In addition, Vox would shoot up to 18-19 seats compared to the ten it currently has.
The PSOE would raise the percentage of votes with respect to the 2019 elections and would remain with 27-28 (now it has 27), while Compromís could lose a seat (16-17) and United We can drop to 5 or 6 deputies (now it has 8).
By provinces, the PP would win in seats in Valencia and Alicante, while it would tie with the PSOE in Castellón.
Those responsible for the consultancy that has made the barometer, José Manuel San Millán and José Miguel Silva, indicate that “the situation is very open” and there is only one thing that is clear: “Any government would have to agree yes or yes.”
The right-wing electorate is “more mobilized” after the ‘Ayuso effect’, although the left-wing is expected to be activated when the electoral machinery is put into operation. In addition, 13% of those who did not vote in 2019, would do so now for Vox, the party that has the greatest ability to attract the abstaining voter and leads, along with the PSOE, sympathy or the perception of closeness with the citizenry.
In any case, the trend, at least in the short term and until there are elections in other communities, will not change. For now, they explain, the clash between the leadership of Genoa and the Government of the Community of Madrid has no consequences and will not have them, they advance, if it is solved soon, because there are no elections in sight.
Regarding the evaluation of the leaders -from 0 to 10- no one approves. The president of the Generalitat, Ximo Puig, fails with 4.59 and 99% knowledge. It is followed by Vice President Mónica Oltra, whom 90% of those surveyed know, with 4.16. The mayor of Valencia is in third place. 85% of those questioned know Joan Ribó and gave him a 4.04 mark.
The only one who improves in terms of knowledge is Carlos Mazón, who has risen 14 points since January, to 65%, due to the push that has been given to him to become president of the PP in the Valencian Community and obtains 3.72. In fifth place is the Minister of Education, Vicent Marzà, with 64% and 3.71.
In recent months, the shadow of an electoral advance at the regional level has been growing and the parties have reinforced their strategies in the Valencian Community. Examples of this are the closing of the National Convention of the PP in the Plaza de Toros de Valencia or the celebration of the 40th Federal Congress of the PSOE in the fairgrounds of the capital of Turia.
However, the president of the Generalitat, Ximo Puig, who is the one who has the power to call the elections, has publicly been in favor of exhausting the legislature -more now with the 2022 Budgets on track- and waiting for the post-economic recovery pandemic bear fruit.