In a week where the US Federal Reserve meeting will give the first glimpses of what is expected for US rates, the tension between Ukraine and Russia has come to dominate the markets. Monday’s session has resulted in large losses on the stock markets and investors are keeping an eye on what is happening in Eastern Europe, where some analysts are already warning that Russian military intervention in Ukraine could be “imminent”, which which could lead to changes in investment strategies.
For example, from Bankinter they expose three scenarios -good, bad and terrible-, depending on how the conflict evolves. “This last scenario is the least likely and the only one that would force us to make a resounding change in our investment strategy.
If the ‘good scenario’ plays out, the Fed will most likely maintain its current approach, but gradually move towards less aggressiveness in relation to reducing its balance sheet. In that case our investment strategy would remain intact. However, if the ‘bad scenario’ were to take place, stock markets would suffer until the situation stabilized”, they point out.
For now, the markets are already beginning to suffer the consequences. The Ibex 35 plummeted 3.18%, falling to 8,417.8 points, which has been its biggest drop since last November 26, when the existence of the omicron variant was known. The only Ibex 35 stocks that have endured the session positively have been Siemens Gamesa (+1.78%) and Telefónica (+0.46%).
On the contrary, the most pronounced falls were presented by Grifols (-7.52%), Acerinox (-7.4%), IAG (-7.08%), Arcelormittal (-6.65%), Indra (- 6.37%), PharmaMar (-6.12%), Fluidra (-5.02%) and Cellnex (-4.95%).
The rest of the European stock markets have also ended this Monday’s session in ‘red’, with falls of 2.63% in London, 3.96% in Paris, 3.8% in Frankfurt and 4.02% in Milan. US markets are also suffering the consequences, especially the Nasdaq index, where technology companies are listed.
Analysts point to the tension in the face of a possible invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops which, in turn, could cause pressure on the price of oil and impact on inflation. Thus, the price of a barrel of Brent quality oil, a reference for the Old Continent, stood at a price of 85.9 dollars, after falling 2.28%, while Texas stood at 82.86 dollars, after giving up 2.65%.
The crisis in Ukraine is also affecting the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin and ethereum have registered sharp declines. Bitcoin was left at the close of the markets in Spain by 2.13% and stood at 34,492 dollars (30,485 euros), its lowest level since July and more than 50% below its historical maximum, while the ethereum It was trading at 2,299 dollars (2,031 euros), 5.79% less than the previous day.