The Minister of Inclusion and Social Security, José Luis Escrivá, has indicated that, in a scenario of stability in the behavior of ERTEs and the self-employed until the end of the year, GDP could advance by 2.4% in the fourth quarter. An estimate that he has announced on his Twitter account, where he usually advances ERTE statistics before the Ministry publishes the information.
The forecast is striking, since it comes at a time when the senior staff of organizations have revised their estimates downwards. The OECD said last week that it expected a contraction in growth in the fourth quarter, while Funcas it was forecasting -5%. The Tax authority, in its real-time GDP model based on 25% of the data already known, it forecast a growth of 1.1%.
By jointly analyzing the high-frequency administrative records of members of the SS, workers in ERTE and the self-employed with benefits, it is possible to approximate the level of economic activity with enough precision and, with some assumptions, already estimate the result of the 4th T👇 pic.twitter.com/AgnIQ9eULN
– José Luis Escrivá (@joseluisescriva) December 8, 2020
All this, at a time when the restrictions and the impact of the second wave are protagonists of the health of the activity at the end of the year. The economic vice president, Nadia Calviño, pointed out that the Government estimated a rebound of just over 1.5%, but in a scenario in which the growth of the third quarter was not yet known and from the Economy it was estimated at 13%. It ended up at 16.7%, which makes it more difficult for the fourth quarter to grow sharply compared to the previous period.
The estimation of the GDP of Escrivá in quarterly rate is based on some assumptions of employment that go through a increase in membership, in seasonally adjusted terms, of 47,000 people in December, which would lead to closing the fourth quarter with 19 million affiliates, 278,000 more than in the third quarter, always in those figures corrected for the calendar and specific campaigns.
Regarding the Temporary Employment Regulation Files (ERTE), Escrivá expects them to stabilize in the remainder of the year “at the current level” and close the quarter with 677,592 affected workers: 582,960 in total suspension and 94,632 in partial.
It also foresees that in December the figure of self-employed with help will be repeated, about 349,000, and end the quarter with 281,089 self-employed in this situation, of which 25% would be combining it with work.
“By jointly analyzing the high-frequency administrative records of Social Security affiliates, workers in ERTE and the self-employed with benefits, it is possible to approximate the level of economic activity quite precisely and, with some assumptions, already estimate the result of the fourth quarter,” he points out. Write in your message on Twitter to point out that “expected evolution” of 2.4%.