Sat. Nov 27th, 2021


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The cold is gradually settling in our streets, the colored lights are preparing to turn on and even the atmosphere of the streets is different. The Christmas and, with it, the draw par excellence of our country: the Extraordinary Draw of the Christmas Lottery.

On December 22, thousands of families will gather in front of the television in the hope of hearing their number from the mouths of the children of San Ildefonso. His wish is to receive even a pinch of one of the many prizes that are raffled and, those who dream big, even ‘Fat’, with its 400,000 euros of prize. However, it is all a matter of mathematics and the illusion wanes for those who begin to do accounts and discover what the odds real to be one of the lucky ones in the Christmas lottery.

The probability that ‘El Gordo’ will play

The probability that we will win the first prize of the Christmas draw is one in 100,000, that is, 0.001%. In this way, it would be just as likely to go to Lugo, a city of 100,000 inhabitants, and find, as soon as you get out of the car, the only person you know from that town who touches you ‘El Gordo’ from the Lottery.

However, if we do not focus on any prize specifically, this probability increases.

Thus, in the two fourth prizes the percentage of hitting is 0.002% and the fifths 0.008%. Approaches, stones and refunds have a 15.3% probability of reaching your pocket, since 15,304 are drawn in total.

And is there no way increase the odds to receive an award?

As he assured Europa Press David Martin de Diego, vice-president of the Royal Spanish Mathematical Society, «all numbers, between 0 and 9, have the same possibility of leaving in each drum of the draw. Therefore, the only way to extend the winning odds is buying more tickets. As Alfonso Jesús Population, professor of mathematics at the University of Valladolid, assured ABC, “the number of tenths that we would have to buy to have a probability of at least one 50 % to obtain any of the first three prizes is 20.650».

A higher probability than in other draws

Although they seem discouraging figures, if we compare them with other raffles organized in Spain, they are not so bad. For example, the odds that you get the Euromillion they are approximately one in 76 million.

If you have not yet bought your Christmas Lottery ticket and you are looking for a specific number because, beyond probability, you believe in destiny and luck, with the ABC locator you can find it quickly and easily.

Don’t forget to check your ticket on the day of the draw and find out if you are one of the lucky ones.

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