It’s not optimism, it’s just fiction


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Either Pedro Sánchez has privileged economic information that he does not share with citizens, or he simply lies to maintain a good utopia far removed from reality. Either Spain has become the most optimistic country in the world, or it is the most blind in terms of growth forecasts for the year 2021. And it seems rather the latter for a mere statistical and credibility issue: there is not a single body national or international that endorses the forecasts of the macroeconomic table prepared by La Moncloa for the coming months. When it seems inevitable that the year 2020 Spain closes with a fall in GDP of 11.2 percent, the Government trusts that next year it will reach a growth of 9.8, and on that basis it has drawn up truly illusory General Budgets. As a first measure, this growth is based on a reception of European funds that for the moment is still in the air. But in the hypothetical case that the desired manna from Brussels does not reach the budget calculated by La Moncloa, growth would barely be 7.2, an a priori figure that is too optimistic if one takes into account that the International Monetary Fund foresees that same growth of 7.2 percent even receiving European funds, that the European Commission reduces it to 5.4, and that the OECD, the most pessimistic body, sinks it to 5 percent. They are calculations, only estimates, yes, but it is still suspicious that the Government of Pedro Sánchez deviates so much from official forecasts made by accredited experts that, moreover, are quite coincidental.

Sánchez is playing with a really dangerous trick. It is based on the idea that Spain being one of the top five economic powers in Europe in objective terms, no country will allow our economy to fall further because in the long run the damage will be for the entire EU. Therefore, the idea that Europe has a moral obligation to Spain underlies, regardless of whether our budgets are not credible for the Commission, that the calculation of income and expenses does not fit at all, and that the alerts of our indebtedness above 120 percent of GDP are already irreversible. The government has deviated by almost 4.5 points from any upward estimate made by Brussels, and no other state has strayed so far as the mean for the margin of error is 1.7 points. It is logical that the European Commission has raised alarm signals in the face of the euphoria with which the Government approved the budgets last Thursday. Spain is not in for euphoria of any kind, and even less so given the uncertainty generated by the possibility of a third wave of the pandemic from next January.

Besides, there are other data that reveal that the Government is in propaganda bad faith with its erroneous calculations. Not only is Spain not going to be the country in Europe that receives the most funds from Brussels in 2021 in proportional terms (the Czech Republic, Greece, Italy, Bulgaria, Hungary or Malta will receive more in relation to their GDP), but Sánchez claims to be the recipient of 27,000 million that the European Commission itself calculates at just 11,190, while Funcas estimates it at 14,000. At most, only half. The reason for this policy of hypnotizing the Spaniards by virtue of inaccurate or directly false criteria is known only to Sánchez and his greasy government propaganda apparatus. On the contrary, it can be argued that Sánchez is not based on an optimism that no one else on the planet sees, but on his perfected obsession with lies.

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