The socialist leader Jose Felix Tezanos has burst into the Madrid campaign with a
CIS ‘flash’ barometer, a formula that he already devised in the Catalans a few days before the elections to mark voting trends at a decisive moment. In this case, the trends set by the CIS overshadow the outcome of the electoral debate, held the night before, and show an open stage before May 4. According to the CIS, contrary to the vast majority of polls, Ayuso’s PP is falling in recent weeks and could be left without the Madrid regional government. The seats of the PP and Vox would add between 65 and 69 deputies, in an Assembly that has 136 seats. The left would get between 67 and 73. Diving through the CIS data allows you to see inconsistencies and weak points in the barometer.
Estimate of seats
In the Catalan ‘flash’ barometer, Tezanos did not introduce the estimate of seats, only reflected the percentage of the vote. In this case, it has wanted to highlight the number of deputies that it foresees, which allows a clear view that the majority of the PP and Vox is in the air and could be overtaken by the left as soon as it mobilizes. The mobilization is being one of the axes of the PSOE campaign, fully focused on calling its electorate to vote to stop the advance of the center-right.
The CIS shows the results of the parties with an estimated range of seats in the Madrid Assembly, where the absolute majority stands at 69 deputies. In the pre-election barometer, carried out in March and published on April 5, no margins were used to offer seats. Then 4,124 interviews were conducted and now, 2,304. In a single constituency, such as Madrid, they are more than enough to reflect seats, according to experts. Forks allow Tezanos to leave all results open and send the key message that nothing is won or lost.
The right goes up but goes down
In this CIS barometer, the sum of the center-right vote is 49.3 percent, compared to 49 percent in the previous study. The left, however, fell from 48.8 to 46.9 percent. Despite this, in number of seats the left wins and the right loses. According to the experts consulted within the sector, the estimate was made wrong in the pre-electoral barometer, the one carried out in March, hence the incongruity that occurs now.
The poll sources consulted see the Citizens’ data unsustainable. Tezanos places him with an estimate of 4.6 percent, close to the 5 percent limit that allows representation in the Assembly. According to these sources, it is a clear message to the Ciudadanos voter so that he does not end up voting for Ayuso and opts for Edmundo Bal “because he has a certain chance of leaving.” However, the raw data from the CIS indicate otherwise. Cs has a voting fidelity of 8.3 percent. Something insignificant, which makes it impossible to have 4.6 percent of the vote. In direct intention to vote, without a kitchen, Ciudadanos drops from 2 to 1.2 percent in two weeks. However, Tezanos assures that its vote estimate rises, “without any justification”, according to the sources consulted. It multiplies that direct vote by no less than four, with loyalty to the ground.
Another inconsistency highlighted by the opinion poll experts consulted by ABC is in the Popular Party’s vote estimate. The PP has a loyalty of 77.1 percent, it would attract 51.1 percent of the old voters of Ciudadanos, 36.4 percent of Vox and even 6.2 percent of the PSOE. “With these data, the result of the PP is above 40 percent,” these sources point out. The CIS leaves the PP at this time at 36.7 percent.
Leaks from PP to Vox
In just two weeks, the CIS has quadrupled the leaks from the PP to Vox. At this time, 8.8 percent of PP voters would go to Vox. On the April 5 barometer they were 2.2. A fact that does not add up to the experts either.
Change of method
One of the main criticisms that Tezanos receives from the sector is the continuous change of method when making barometers and presenting the results. This is what the president of GAD3, Narciso Michavila, the director of Sociometrica, Gonzalo Adán, and other experts denounce. It started without including an estimate, and only offered direct voting intention, without any type of cuisine. He then chose to start ‘cooking’ the data in his own way. In the ‘flash’ barometer of Catalonia, it did not include the distribution of seats, but it did include vote estimation images. In this case of Madrid, there is a distribution of deputies with wide ranges, and it eliminates the margins for voting estimation.
Industry experts particularly value the CIS microdata, the true jewel in the crown of this autonomous body, attached to the Ministry of the Presidency. Well, in this flash barometer, Tezanos has decided not to include those microdata. “He does not dare to publish the microdata, because anyone could dismantle the fraudulent estimate he is making,” warn the sources consulted.
Lack of transparency
From Sociometrica, Gonzalo Adán calls fraud what is happening with the CIS. As a researcher, he denounces that there is no planning of the studies, and that Tezanos decides at all times how and when to carry out a barometer. In his view, there is a clear lack of transparency. According to Michavila, “after the 4M, a serious and rigorous debate will have to be opened to try to give back to an essential public service such as the CIS the credibility that it always had until the arrival of Tezanos.”
Experts are concerned about the discredit Tezanos is leading to the CIS. “In one part of the electorate, it has become apparent that the CIS manipulates, and it can refuse to respond. This can cause the samples to be naturally skewed to the left. ‘
A possible error that is at the base of the CIS barometer, according to some survey sources consulted, is taking as a reference base the regional elections of May 2019, held at a very different political moment from the current one, with a Citizens who stepped on the heels to an extremely weak PP. The most certain thing at this time would be to start from the scenario of the generals of November 2019 in Madrid to reflect well the evolution of the vote and the current estimate.