The Valencian Community faces in the coming weeks the challenge of staying in a low alert level for coronavirus and avoid the consequences that the Easter and Easter holidays can cause despite the restriction on mobility and social gatherings decreed by the Generalitat.
The accumulated incidence, which came to be reduced to 26 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, has been climbing points in recent days to stand at 36.34 today. Despite this, it is still the lowest of a country that yields an average six times higher (199). In addition, Valencian hospitals have managed to reduce the number of beds occupied by patients with covid-19 to 2.23% -7.67% in the case of ICUs.
The ability of the autonomy to control this rebound will be key to consolidating itself as one of the European regions with the least impact of the coronavirus today. But the upward trend in epidemiological data at the national level, despite the perimeter closure being maintained, augurs a very delicate scenario.
For now, the effect of the San José bridge is already noticeable in the circulation of the virus. The reproduction index of the Valencian Community, as in the great majority of the autonomous regions, is already at the barrier of 1, which indicates that the infection if it is spreading in an uncontrolled way among the population, since each patient infects at least one other person. In fact, the provinces of Alicante (1.08) and Castellón (1.2) are already above that threshold, while Valencia is still below (0.92) but very close.
CIOVID, the mathematical tool developed by experts from the Miguel Hernández University (UMH) of Elche, draws a prediction for the next few days in which autonomy would register an increase in infections of 30% to return to a moderate scenario as of April 20 in which 2,627 active cases would be counted, or to a more unfavorable one in which 3,868 simultaneous infections would be reached again.
The British strain consolidates in full immunization
The settlement of the much more transmissible British variant will not help. 94.8 percent of the positives detected in the Valencian Community at the end of March they corresponded to this strain. This is revealed in the report of the Ministry of Health that updates the epidemiological situation of the variants that are of importance for public health, dated April 12.
At the end of last year this strain was irrelevant in the region, but it has been increasing its presence coinciding with the uncontrolled transmission that occurred during the third wave of the pandemic. At the end of February it already accounted for 34.2% of cases and at the beginning of March, 52.2%.
Concern about this and other strains, such as the South African, with still little presence in our country, has led the Generalitat not to lower its guard and maintain the restrictions in force until April 25 with a slight nuance: from this Monday you can perform meetings between two groups not living together in private and the maximum number of people who can meet in public spaces is increased to six.
In parallel, vaccination is proceeding apace, with the promise that the massive arrival of vials will speed up the process to reach 70 percent of those vaccinated by the end of August.
The Generalitat has administered more than 90 percent of the doses received -1,079,226- and 286,592 people are already immunized with the complete regimen. However, at the moment they hardly represent 5.7% of the total inhabitants of the Valencian Community.