The excess mortality adds 258 deaths from coronavirus to the official figure in Valencia




The excess mortality registered during the pandemic in the Valencian Community exceeds the official number of deaths by 258 coronavirus deaths in the region. The third wave made autonomy the national epicenter of the health crisis with an excess of deaths of 39.5 percent, the largest increase since March 2020 compared to the estimate made by the Daily Mortality Monitoring System (MoMo) based on historical series.

Thus, according to the figures provided by civil registries to this tool managed by the Carlos III Health Institute, in the last year 7,477 Valencians have died more than expected in five different periods, according to its statistical model. Of these deaths, 4,485 occurred between December 1, 2020 and February 19, 2021. Since then and until now, despite the fact that the global count of deaths has continued to grow very gradually, no more cycles have been detected with a significant increase.

Graph with observed deaths (black) and estimated (blue) in the Valencian Community from November 2019 to April 2021
Graph with observed deaths (black) and estimated (blue) in the Valencian Community from November 2019 to April 2021 – MoMo

Despite the fact that the data collected by the MoMo does not distinguish the cause of death, the excess of deaths can be compared to the official count of deaths from coronavirus offered by the Ministry of Health until April 12, the day on which this was published. report. On that date, the balance in the three provinces already reached 7,219 people, so there is still a difference of 258 deaths between the two figures

This disparity, taking into account that we are talking about a prognosis in the first case, could be attributed to other factors derived from the pandemic, such as a worsening of the pathologies that have not been evaluated or treated and have ended up having fatal consequences.

It could also be patients with covid-19 who were not diagnosed as such despite the fact that they were suspected of being so and, therefore, they do not appear in the records of the Generalitat or in those of the Ministry of Health.

In these five periods, different characteristics are observed in terms of their duration or incidence by age, but one in common: people over 74 years they have been the most affected. In addition, in three of them, after the home confinement was lifted, more women than men died.

Until the third wave of the pandemic hit the three Valencian provinces hard, the largest rebound in excess deaths had coincided with the onset of the pandemic and stood at 36 percent in just one month -from March 20 to April 25, 2020-, while the rest has been around 17 percent on average.

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